Thursday, August 16, 2007

Scientists find . . . asphalt is hotter than dirt!

As one of those most likely to be smeared as a "global warming denier," I think it might be useful to make a few points today regarding the "flawless" data that supports the idea of anthropogenic (man-made) global warming.
After a Canadian found a flaw in the calculations used to determine temperature anomalies in the United States from the global average, NASA was forced to correct their data. To give you some context, this is the very data that Al Gore cited in his now mythical "An Inconvenient Truth" when telling us all that 1998 was the hottest year in U.S. history. It turns out that there was a flaw in the software that generated this data as a result of the Y2K bug. With the newly revised data, it turns out that 1998 is now only the second hottest. The hottest day on record in the U.S. was 1934, you know, back when there was a chicken in every pot and an SUV in every driveway. Oh wait, that's right, there wasn't. In fact, of the top 10 hottest days in U.S. history, 6 occurred on or before 1953. 5 of them were 1939 or before.
One industrious individual in Chico, California, got suspicious after seeing what seemed to be an unexplained drastic jump in temperatures from one of the temperature sensors around the country that is used to collect temperatures to track the earth's "fever," as Al Gore calls it. He found that the jump in the sensor's readings, at Detroit Lakes, Minnesota, corresponded almost exactly with when 2 air conditioning units were moved off of a nearby building and set up on the ground in close proximity to the sensor. He and some assistants have gone around the country and surveyed these critical measuring instruments, and found that many are not properly positioned, but are in fact placed near asphalt, buildings, and other things, like air conditioning units, that will result in higher than accurate readings.
My third point relates to a paper that I read in the journal Science, one of the top peer-reviewed Science journals in the world. It was regarding a new method for predicting climate change. Apparently, previous models neglect to include certain aspects of the climate that are difficult to model. Do you understand the full impact of that statement? Scientists make predictions on the climate without taking into account all the various factors. Nor do they even fully understand all the factors that influence climate change. This particular study developed a new model that took into account things like El Nino. To test this model, they did retrospective predictions, and compared them to what was actually recorded. The new model worked better than other models, and was even able to predict some cooling that actually did occur in the last 20 years. Importantly, the other models were never able to accurately predict cooling. They could only predict warming, even when tested retrospectively. A model is only as good as the scientist that generates it, reflecting his/her understanding of how various factors impact the climate. And it appears that many models are only good for predicting warming. This new model actually predicted some cooling within the next five year period, with warming thereafter. And you wonder why some people are skeptical?
Finally, a new Zogby poll shows Bush's approval rating down 2 points to 32%. Congress is currently at 15%. Importantly, Democrats give their Democrat-controlled Congress a whopping 80% disapproval rating. Nancy Pelosi isn't doing too good of a job for the American people, or for the children. With all the carping about how irresponsible it is for the Iraqi parliament to be on summer recess, what about our Congress? If they really feel that it is a moral imperative to bring our troops home now, how reprehensible is it for them to be off on vacation when they should be hard at work trying to bring our troops home?

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