Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.

In spite of my earlier griping, I actually did go and vote for McCain. Never say never, I guess. It didn't matter. McCain, to my mind, was almost as weak a candidate as Dole in '96. We knew this would be a hard election. It is always hard for the incumbent party to win a third term. Bush had low ratings. Iraq is unpopular. We needed someone strong. McCain wasn't it. Never was. All the talk of him being a good closer was always BS. Where was that good closing in 2000? Has he had some nailbiters in recent elections in Arizona that I'm unaware of that he came from behind to win? He didn't close well on his immigration bill (thank goodness). The guy pulled less punches fighting his own party than he did with Obama.

Obama won. He is to be congratulated. He won with the largest margin of any Democrat since Johnson. He outperformed Clinton (both times) and Carter (not necessarily a high bar to overcome, but, still). Now let us see if it really all was jut hot air regarding how an Obama presidency would finally transcend race in this country. Can we now do away with quotas and affirmative action and race-based admissions? Do we really need them when a black man can win the presidency with a commanding majority, and not just a plurality?

I sincerely pray that my fears of an Obama presidency won't come true, but I worry that is too much to hope for. He has the White House, and Dems have even stronger majorities in both houses of Congress - better than the Republicans had. Not filibuster-proof, but on the right issues, it just might, given that there are still some very fickle GOP senators in there, who I place as much faith in regarding their stalwart GOP-loyalty as I do in my 3-year old obeying me - I am happy when it happens, but nor surprised when it doesn't.

Dems now have what they wished for - the legislative and executive branches. If predictions are true, they should also be able to solidify a Roe-worshipping panel in the judiciary to ensure that this travesty of a decision is never given any serious threat. Obama campaigned in the primaries as very liberal. In the general, he tacked more to the center. It is hard to say exactly which was more accurate - because we know so little about him. What little we do know makes his centrist statements ring hollow. We know that in his very limited career as a U.S. Senator, he voted more liberal than anybody else in the Senate. We know he amassed a liberal voting record, when not voting present, in the Illinois senate. We know he has made some very liberal statements in interviews in the past. We know he has associated with some extremely radical people in his life - Ayers, Dohrn, Wright, Pfleger, Khalidi. We know he has also associated with some criminal figures - Rezko. Do I think he espouses their most vicious beliefs? No. Do I think he has some common ground with them? Yes. And that is what scares me. I don't think he wants to bomb government buildings, like Ayers did. But does he agree with Ayers' radical views on education? And will that be reflected in his appointments in education positions? I don't think he supports the terrorist actions of the PLO. But will he share an antipathy towards Israel, our only staunch and reliable ally in the Middle East? And if I don't believe that he has the same hateful feelings towards American and its government that Wright has, I also believe he won't stand up to those who do, so long as having their support is politically advantageous.

I fear that Obama and Reid and Pelosi will take this opportunity to pass a myriad of leftist legislative pieces that they have been dying to pass for some time now. Card check. Freedom of Choice. Fairness Doctrine. "Tax cuts" to the 45% of Americans who don't even pay taxes in the first place. He said that he will cut the taxes on 95% of Americans, that he will only raise taxes on the top 5%, those making $250,000/year and above. But the IRS numbers don't match. According to the IRS, the threshold for the top 5% of earners is $153,542. Maybe that is why the number that Joe Biden was saying was $150,000, not $250,000. Or why Bill Richardson put the line at $120,000. The top 5%, people earning $153,542 and above, already pay 60% of income taxes. The bottom 50% pay 2.99%. The threshold for the bottom 50% is <$32,000. So half the people pay only 3% of taxes. How are they being punished by "tax cuts to the rich?" Democrats would do well to remember the lesson the DNC learned in 1994, and the one learned by the GOP in 2006. Overreaching is a temptation, and it is often very costly in midterm elections. I believe, though, that the temptation will be too great, and the hunger too strong, and we will see some very aggressive, very liberal action quickly, while a whipped GOP mistakenly views yesterday as a message to get out of the way.

This was not a historic election based on voter turnout. 3 million fewer votes were cast in this election than in 2004. There was a 9 million vote swing between 2004 and 2008, because Obama pulled in 3 million more votes than Kerry did, and did it brilliantly in some key states, while McCain pulled in 6 million fewer votes than Bush did. McCain was not the man to win this election.

And for the GOP? Make no mistake, the GOP is in trouble. But conservatism is not. Why? No conservative has lost. McCain was no conservative. His proudest achievements have been those where he crossed the aisle and put together some horrible legislation with some pretty liberal Democrats (Feingold?). His biggest ally is a center-left Scoop Jackson-style quasi-Democrat, Joe Lieberman. The GOP in the House and Senate haven't been conservative for quite some time - maybe back when they were opposing Clinton, but not since Bush got in. We all wanted Bush to be conservative, and he was on social issues, but he never was on spending - "compassionate conservatism" is code for moderate. No, this was not a defeat of a conservative GOP - this was 1976 and Gerald Ford, or 1996 and Bob Dole.

My fear now is that we are going to turn the reigns over to CINOs - conservatives in name only. I love Giuliani, but he is no conservative. I love Romney, but he is, at best, a recent convert to conservatism, and not convincingly so yet. Huckabee? I can't stand him. Still can't. Not only is it a hoax to claim him as any kind of conservative standard bearer, but on a personal note, after his belittling my religious beliefs to boost him ahead of Romney, I now find the man repugnant, and wouldn't support him for local dogcatcher.

Palin shows promise, but she came out too early. I liked her, but it was not a wise move by McCain. I think she will make a great candidate someday, but by adding her to the ticket, McCain effectively negated his "experience" argument against Obama. She was a first term governor. She has done some good things there, and I think she is a rising star. I hope this hasn't soured her chances in the future. Jindal also has the potential to come out as a star for the GOP. In my mind, he was a much stronger choice than Palin, which is why I am glad he wasn't picked. I never thought McCain would win, and worried that any running mate would have been tarnished from it. To my mind, McCain would have done well to pick Fred Thompson. I think Fred would have been a formidable opponent, and I think he would have talked rings around Biden.

So there it is. Democrats, you now have your dreams realized. A black Democrat in the White House, Bush out, and commanding majorities in Congress, the likes of which Democrats haven't seen for 3 decades. But you know what they say. Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it. Beginning inauguration day, 2009, all of this becomes yours. You own it. Bad economic numbers? Your fault. Troops still in Iraq? Your fault. Death toll rising in Afghanistan? Your fault. Jobless numbers rising? Your fault. No more blaming others. No more blaming Bush. You want the troops out? Take them out, like you pledged to. Nobody left to stop you. "Rich" not paying their "fair share" in taxes? Raise them, and watch revenues fall, jobs fall, jobs shipped overseas to more business-friendly tax environments, and the economy plunging further into recession.

I now get to be the happy warrior, playing the loyal opposition. Don't worry, I am not going to mimic my colleagues on the left, and spend the next 4 years (Oh, dear Lord, let it be only 4) drawing depictions of Obama as a Nazi. But don't tell me to support him either, any more than acknowledging that he is my president. That I will do. But turnabout is fair play.

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